Las Vegas may be famous for its bright lights and bold bets, but last week’s NMHC annual conference was all about thoughtful connections and strategic foresight. Our StoneRiver team mingled with the industry’s best—property owners, lenders, brokers, and capital partners—trading ideas and perspectives on the multifamily market. Here’s what we learned about the currents shaping capital markets, supply, and investment fundamentals, and where we see opportunity as we look toward 2026 and 2027.
Capital Markets Are Reopening, With Disciplined Selectivity
Equity capital remains measured, but the tone at NMHC was encouraging. Capital has prioritized yield recently, and preferred equity continues to be an active part of the capital stack. However, many groups anticipate an increase in common equity deployment as fundamentals strengthen throughout 2026.
Debt Markets Are Healthy and Well-Positioned for Deployment
Debt is readily available with competitive terms for development, acquisitions, and refinances. Agency lenders remain competitive and are enhancing select products as they look to deploy their $88B caps this year. This stability in the lending environment is improving overall market confidence and optionality.
The Supply Pipeline Is Slowing, Supporting Long-Term Fundamentals
One of the most consistent themes discussed was the “supply cliff” playing out across many markets. As new deliveries begin to taper off, the supply-demand balance is expected to improve, which should provide a meaningful tailwind for occupancy and rent growth over the coming cycle.
Fundamentals Appear to Be Stabilizing
The prevailing sentiment is that operating fundamentals are rebounding from their low point over the last two years. A majority of markets are 12+ months past peak supply, paving the way for improved occupancy and, subsequently, improved rents. This is expected to be particularly noticeable in the Southeast, which absorbed a tremendous amount of new supply in recent years. Expectations are for modest improvement to NOIs in 2026, which should enhance valuations and investment outlooks.
Spring Leasing Season Will Be an Important Market Signal
Many groups noted that the spring leasing season will be a key indicator of sustained momentum. A healthy leasing season could increase investor conviction and further accelerate capital deployment, likely supporting increased transaction volume later this year.
The Southeast Continues to Stand Out as a Long-Term Growth Story
Across conversations, the Southeastern U.S. remained a focal point for investors, as the region’s long-term fundamentals outweigh the recent cyclical volatility and support investment. Population growth, job expansion, and durable housing demand in markets like Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia continue to attract attention, especially where new supply is moderating and long-term fundamentals remain strong.
Closing Insight
The biggest takeaway from NMHC was clear: the multifamily market is moving into a healthier, more normalized phase. Capital remains disciplined, but the outlook is increasingly constructive, supported by stabilizing fundamentals, improving supply dynamics, and a strong long-term demand story. As leasing season unfolds in 2026 and clarity continues to build, we expect growing momentum through the second half of the year and into 2027.
